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Berichten: 1597

BerichtGeplaatst: Vr Jun 16, 2006 12:00 am    Onderwerp: DIVERSE TIPS Reageer met quote




-PERU COPPER, Exclamation

Tobin Smith
Datum: 06/14/06 21:34:35
Aan: ChangeWave WaveRider
Onderwerp: ChangeWave Investing Alert (New Buy Recommendations)

June 14, 2006

Parallel Petroleum (PLLL) -- Buy Under $20 (new Buy Under price)
Provident Energy Trust (PVX) -- Buy Under $12 (new Buy Under price)
**More stocks that represent great buys are listed below


Dear WaveRiders,

As I wrote in my alert yesterday, this really has been the "incorrection" where the wipe-out of commodity and leveraged hedge-fund accounts brought out cashier liquidation of any and all stocks and brought historic panic selling to the world markets.

If Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke believes his own rhetoric that lower commodity prices will take the edge off of future inflation rates, he just got his wish.

When you look at economic measures that tell us concurrent trends in our economy, you see a very healthy picture:

* Airline travel is stronger than last year.
* Trucking shipments are stronger than last year.
* China's and India's GDPs are stronger.
* Capacity utilization is stronger than last year.
* Employment is stronger than ever.

Even the president is finally getting on a roll.

So for all you newbies to ChangeWave, it's like we rolled the calendar back to the lows of March -- and if you look at the chart below, it's uncanny.


It's time to back up the truck on our strongest earnings plays for 2007 that got thrown out with the baby and the bathwater.

I have instructed our more-advanced subscribers in our Inner Circle program to buy calls and sell put options on many of these stocks to crank their returns with leveraged plays.

For you ChangeWave Investing subscribers -- especially newbies -- it's time to crank your 40% allocations to Ballast Growth and Ballast Income plays.

The irrational carnage has reached the lines in the sand, and technically it looks like we have a total repeat of the March bottom as well.

Just look at this chart of TODCO (THE):

This chart looks like every chart of our strongest-earning, low P/E stocks. They've all been massacred by indiscriminate selling -- completely overdone and unwarranted.

This washout looks done. All the numbers in today on inventories of oil and capacity utilization in the refineries says demand remains at 84 million barrels a day worldwide and 22 million barrels a day in the U.S. And look at natural gas prices --they are up 35 cents today as well.

So it's time to MAPS-load the amazingly oversold energy and alternative energy plays for 25%-100% profits. Between Iran's saber-rattling and an early start to hurricane season, the oil services businesses are looking incredibly cheap here -- it's time to swoop in.

This is a great time to add to positions (or start new ones), and I recommend buying the following stocks listed below at market NOW, as most are below our recommended Strong Buy prices. (For ChangeWave newbies, these prices represent the best values for entry points.):


BJ Services (BJS) -- Strong Buy Under $35 -- Buy Under $37.50 -- Target $60
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) -- Strong Buy Under $30 -- Buy Under $33 -- Target $36
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) -- Strong Buy Under $36 -- Buy Under $38 -- Target $60
Parallel Petroleum (PLLL -- new Buy Under) -- Strong Buy Under $19 -- Buy Under $20 -- Target $30
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) -- Strong Buy Under $30 -- Buy Under $32 -- Target $45
Silicon Motion (SIMO) -- Strong Buy Under $14 -- Buy Under $16 -- Target $24
Superior Energy (SPN) -- Strong Buy Under $28 -- Buy Under $30 -- Target $45
TODCO (THE) -- Strong Buy Under $36 -- Buy Under $37 -- Target $65


Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) -- Strong Buy Under $22.50 -- Buy Under $23
Provident Energy Trust (PVX -- new Buy Under) -- Strong Buy Under $11.50 -- Buy Under $12
Harvest Energy Trust (HTE) -- Strong Buy Under $30 -- Buy Under $33
Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV) -- Strong Buy Under $21 -- Buy Under $22

AGGRESSIVE GROWTH TECHNOLOGY -- buy the following names at market

Emcore (EMKR) -- Strong Buy Under $10 -- Buy Under $11 -- Target $20
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) -- Strong Buy Under $39 -- Buy Under $42 -- Target $50
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) -- Strong Buy Under $15 -- Buy Under $12 -- Target $30
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) -- Strong Buy Under $32 -- Buy Under $36 -- Target $60

BASIC MATERIALS -- great buys at market

Northgate Minerals (NXG) -- Strong Buy Under $3 -- Buy Under $3.20 -- Target $8
Peru Copper (CUP) -- Strong Buy Under $4.50 -- Buy Under $5 -- Target $16

This is a GIFT, sports fans. And since the market is overdone to the downside, we saw the big blow-off yesterday -- the $48 gold drop was the tell of all time on the commodity-meltdown blow-off cashier-selling panic. (Say that five times fast!)

Get in there and get busy building your portfolios.

Hit 'em straight,
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BerichtGeplaatst: Vr Jun 16, 2006 1:28 am    Onderwerp: DIVERSE TIPS Reageer met quote

After Hours (RT-ECN): 5.20 0.62 (13.54%) Wink
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BerichtGeplaatst: Vr Jun 16, 2006 9:46 pm    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote

PERU COPPER Exclamation


Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change

06/16/06 5.30 5.30 5.00 5.09 +0.51 3873000 +11.14%

06/15/06 4.43 4.80 4.43 4.58 +0.39 3185100 +9.31%

06/14/06 4.38 4.69 4.16 4.19 -0.11 3441900 -2.56%

06/13/06 3.94 4.46 3.66 4.30 +0.20 5140900 +4.88%

06/12/06 5.00 5.01 4.07 4.10 -0.89 6882400 -17.84%

-- Period -- -- High -- -- Low --
5-Day 5.65 on 06/09/06 3.66 on 06/13/06
20-Day 6.90 on 06/07/06 3.66 on 06/13/06
65-Day 6.90 on 06/07/06 2.10 on 04/04/06
100-Day 6.90 on 06/07/06 2.10 on 04/04/06
260-Day 6.90 on 06/07/06 1.00 on 07/05/05
Year to Date 6.90 on 06/07/06 2.10 on 04/04/06
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BerichtGeplaatst: Zo Jun 25, 2006 12:16 am    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote


: Tobin Smith
Datum: 06/24/06 01:28:12
Aan: ChangeWave WaveRider
Onderwerp: ChangeWave Investing Weekly Update (06/23/2006)

June 23, 2006

EDITOR'S NOTE: During the process of auditing our online Ballast Income portfolio today, we discovered that the dividends used to make our calculations were overstated for Harvest Energy Trust and Fording Canadian Coal. Therefore, after the corrections were made on these stocks, the "return with dividends" moved lower on the site intraday. We apologize for any confusion that this error may have caused.

STOCKS MENTIONED IN THIS WEEK'S UPDATE INCLUDE: Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV), Alvarion (ALVR), Brigham Exploration (BEXP), Cree (CREE), Emcore (EMKR), Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG), Peru Copper (CUP), Sonus (SONS), Suntech Power Holdings (STP), TODCO (THE), VeriSign (VRSN) and Xethanol Corp. (XHL).


To view our current ChangeWave Portfolio buy lists, click here:


Dear WaveRiders,

Today Anadarko Petroleum confirmed what we have been saying about the extreme value in the energy patch better than ANY analyst!

Buying reserves from Kerr-McGee for $12 a barrel of oil equivalent (boe) -- and paying 45% premiums to the market values -- tells me that our gas plays are still 50%-75% undervalued.

All you have to do is compare $12 boe to the 2011 futures strips valuing oil at $65 boe and gas around $8.

I expect to see MUCH more MAPS-acquisition activity in the energy sector, and Parallel Petroleum (PLLL) and Gasco (GSX) are the best targets here.


The entire world is trying to figure out whether the Fed's move to 5.5% short-term rates is going to kill the economy. But you have a great advantage over most other investors -- you have access to our ChangeWave Alliance macroeconomic surveys.

It was the Alliance's read on the expansion/contraction phases of the business cycle that took us off the offensive with higher P/E tech stocks in January 2001 and saved our subscribers from most of the bear-market carnage.

It was also this signal that helped us buy defensive interest-rate-sensitive investments that GREW in value while the U.S. equity markets crumbled.

During that period we bought:

* Mortgage REITs
* Energy Trusts
* Zero coupon bond trusts

And we watched our money grow while the rest of the world suffered 40%-60% losses from the Internet bubble burst.

What's my point for this trip down memory lane? Just take a look at our Allliance IT Spending Survey chart -- all the way back to 2001.

As demand crumbled we rode out the carnage in our safety-blanket stocks, earning great dividends AND capital appreciation.

Based on our latest data, we are nowhere near a recession call. But if and when we get a contraction heads-up, like we did back in early 2001, we will step aside and:

1) Short the Nasdaq via the ProFunds Ultra-Short Fund.
2) Buy the Ultra ProFunds Interest Declining Fund.
3) Load up on REITs, Mortgage REITs and zero-coupon bonds.
4) Wait for energy trusts to come down to the low end of the trading range.

Here is the magic IT Spending chart -- it is a VERY valuable part of your subscription to ChangeWave Investing:


You can see why I was so negative on growth stocks going into late September and how the shift in September 2002-November 2002 started us warming back to growth.

We took off big in May 2003 and bought HEAVY into growth waves that had been killed by the bear market -- stocks like XM Satellite Radio, which we recommended selling in early 2004 for just under $30.

You and I make the most money at the transition points of the economy, from expansion peaks and contraction troughs.

Right now we make money on big corrections in the secular growth stocks that continue to grow at very-high rates regardless of the slowing rate of growth in the economy.

Here are some of the best opportunities you currently have a chance to ride.


TODCO is by far the most misunderstood investment opportunity among the universe of offshore drillers, which gives us the biggest upside opportunity.

Most investors and analysts erroneously view TODCO through an analytical "lens" and see the horrid 2001 Gulf of Mexico-led jackup rigs (the mammoth platforms that drill in shallow offshore waters) market rather than in the context of today's internationally driven market. In 2001 (and decades prior), the incremental consumer of Gulf of Mexico jackups was the small independent producer drilling the "small, marginal well."

Today's "incremental consumers" of Gulf of Mexico jackup rigs are Saudi Aramco and other national and international oil companies targeting much more prolific reserves elsewhere on the planet.

The emigration of jackup rigs to the Middle East has necessitated an upgrading of domestic shallow-water prospects.

Today's "small, marginal wells" are materially larger (two to three times bigger) than the "small, marginal wells" of 2001, and hence a lot more resilient to short-term gas-price weakness.

This supply/demand imbalance is secular and at 22 times $3 earnings power, my target for TODCO remains at $65 per share.


Another MAPS in the Clean Tech energy space is Suntech Power Holdings (STP). It's one of the world's Top 10 manufacturers of photovoltaic (PV) cells based on production output. The company has developed an advanced process to manufacture PV cells cost-effectively and on a large scale, with high-conversion efficiencies.

Suntech has plans to double its capacity in 2006. They are profitable and top-line growth has been impressive. Q1 revenue rose 133.5% year-over-year to $89.9 million -- well above the $78.5 million consensus and it guided Q2 higher -- and a good sign that the company has been aggressively increasing capacity. In Q1, Suntech increased its annualized capacity by 20% from 150MW to 180MW and expects to reach 240MW by the end of Q3. It also added a 30MW production line that began to ramp up production in April.

The stock has fallen 40% since April 19. Its top-line growth, impressive margins and capacity additions in such a hot sector make it a compelling buy here.


EMKR's business activity is experiencing strong growth across many of its businesses. In datacom, they are seeing better than expected demand and have recently begun MAPS the X2 product line a month ahead of schedule.

In their fiber optic biz, they resolved some manufacturing problems for their transceivers, which have been MAPS into the Verizon network throughout the last month.

Solar opportunities are beginning to materialize and EMKR is beginning to benefit from the rapidly growing terrestrial solar markets. They expect to finalize a few strategic partnerships by the end of the September quarter, which they believe investors will view positively.

Checks indicate the company's satellite business remains strong, as EMKR continues to win designs and provide a strong base to support the ramping terrestrial business. They should return to profitability in the September quarter and that will be a very positive catalyst.

Finally, I expect big announcements in their white light LED sector with General Electric -- that is the hidden mojo for the stock.


Remember, you don't have to wait for the Weekly Update to keep up with the headlines in our favorite names. Our new and vastly improved ChangeWave Investing Web site has a new section called the "Stock Monitor" where you can go to read all the latest headlines on our Buy List companies.

The latest stories are displayed on the home page, but if you click on the "more" link in the Stock Monitor box you will be taken to a page with the latest headlines for EACH stock on our list. Go to www.changewave.com to check it out.

Also, if you are looking for a quick summary of our advice on our recommended stocks, check out the Buy List Matrix. There you will find a list of the current stocks with the latest prices (with daily movement indicated by red or green numbers), plus the Buy Under, Strong Buy Under, Accumulate Under AND Target prices -- all in one place.

Now, on to the news...


Advantage Energy Income Fund and Ketch Resources Trust announced the results of unitholder meetings regarding the merger of Advantage and Ketch. The plan was approved by 96.58% of the votes cast at the Advantage unitholder meeting and 88.43% of the votes cast at the Ketch unitholder meeting. Court approval was also received and the arrangement is expected to close on June 23, 2006. The combined entity will continue under the name Advantage Energy Income Fund.


Alvarion announced that its BreezeMAX system, the most deployed WiMAX solution in the world with more than 150 installations in more than 30 countries, has achieved WiMAX Forum certification. Certification means that a WiMAX device complies with the IEEE 802.16 and ETSI HiperMAN standards based on 100% success in a series of authorized WiMAX Forum interoperability tests.

"Having been first to the market with a commercially deployed system since 2004 with over 80% of the WiMAX market, receiving certification for BreezeMAX is a major milestone toward universal WiMAX services," said Tzvika Friedman, president and CEO of Alvarion. "We continue to execute our plans and meet our targets. Introducing our WiMAX equipment in the market before certification was available enabled us to capture market share and satisfy customers' immediate requirements, while achieving timely certification on a field-proven solution."

OUR TAKE: We have heard this before -- we NEED to see sales numbers expand profitably, and we need to see this now.


Brigham Exploration released its recent operational update, including substantial drilling successes in the Vicksburg. Brigham also announced that total depth has been reached on its first Bakken horizontal well, and that its acreage position in the Bakken play has expanded to more than 75,000 net acres.

Brigham is currently completing its newest Triple Crown Field well, the Dawson #4, which encountered significant apparent pay and appears to be comparable to Brigham's better Triple Crown Field wells. Brigham also recently perforated and fracture stimulated the Dawson #3 well, which was recently flowing to sales at an early rate of approximately 4.4 MMcf of natural gas and 50 barrels of condensate (4.7 MMcfe) per day.

Brigham retains 100% working interests in both the Dawson #3 and Dawson #4 wells, and is preparing to commence an additional 100% working interest Triple Crown Field well, the Sullivan F-33.

OUR TAKE: The news from BEXP keeps getting better and better.


Cree has set a new benchmark for the LED industry, reporting LED efficacy test results of 131 lumens per watt using its prototype white LEDs with Cree EZBright LED chips. The results have been confirmed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

"This is the highest level of efficacy that has been publicly reported for a white LED and raises the bar for the LED industry," said Scott Schwab, Cree general manager, LED chips. "This result once again demonstrates Cree's leadership in LED technology and provides a glimpse into the future as to why we believe LED-based lighting products could not only save energy, but also change the way people use light."


Fording Canadian Coal Trust announced that the trustees have declared a second-quarter cash distribution of $1 (Canadian) per unit to be paid on July 14, 2006, to unitholders of record on June 30, 2006. The ex-distribution date is June 28, 2006. This distribution is for the period from April 1, 2006, to June 30, 2006.


This week the regional government of Junin published support of Peru Copper's Toromocho Copper Project in "El Peruano," the official government newspaper. The ordinance declares that the development of the Toromocho Mining Project, which is located in the region of Junin, is in the public's interest and will be a benefit to the region. The ordinance also calls for the company to give priority employment to the local population, comply with environmental regulations and ensure social responsibility.

Charles Preble, president and CEO of Peru Copper, said "We are very pleased with the show of support for our project by the regional government in Junin. Toromocho is a world-class copper deposit and its development has to be a partnership among the local communities, the Peruvian government and the company. Further, we fully support compliance with the highest standards of environmental protection and social responsibility. We already sponsor job training in the area and expect to provide a significant number of jobs for the local population when construction on the project begins."


TeleBermuda International (TBI) has deployed a complete IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)-ready architecture from Sonus as the foundation of its next generation voice network. This end-to-end network will support TBI's comprehensive service offerings to the residential and business market for customers throughout Bermuda. TBI migrated from its legacy network to Sonus' next-generation switching platform in April 2006 and has plans to expand service into additional markets including the Cayman Islands.


VeriSign announced that its Shared Service Provider (SSP) Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) was the first service to be certified under the General Services Administration (GSA)-managed FIPS 201 Evaluation Program. The FIPS 201 certification enables VeriSign to provide PKI services for federal agencies needing to comply with Homeland Security Presidential Directive 12, or the government smart card initiative.

The VeriSign SSP PKI is the first of 90 products and services submitted to date to the GSA, to be certified as FIPS 201-compliant. Successful completion of the GSA-managed FIPS 201 evaluation acknowledges that the VeriSign SSP PKI fully complies with the requirements specified in FIPS 201 and the X.509 Federal Common Policy.

In other news, VeriSign has expanded its communications network into Asia to meet customer demand for improved international roaming services. The company also announced that SK Telecom, the number one wireless communications provider in South Korea, has signed a multi-year contract to use VeriSign's regional networking services and will be the first CDMA operator in the region using its new network services.

VeriSign is also working with Oracle on mobile alerts that allow enterprises to exchange timely information with employees, customers and partners. The objective of combining the capabilities is to allow any Oracle application running in an enterprise's data center to send messages to users via the notification service gateway hosted in VeriSign's data center.


The American Stock Exchange on Tuesday began listing the common stock of Xethanol Corp. under the ticker symbol XNL, changing from its previous ticker (XTHN.OB).

In other news, Xethanol announced the appointment of Lucas Rice as vice president of operations, where he will be responsible for the performance and expansion of Xethanol's production facilities. Prior to joining Xethanol, Rice held executive positions at General Electric and was responsible for measuring, analyzing, improving and controlling key processes that influence customer satisfaction and productivity growth.

OUR TAKE: The stock ran super hard off our recommendation, so a pullback is healthy here. It's a Strong Buy under $8, and you can accumulate shares under $9.


Then join me at the D.C. Money Show on July 20-22. It's a great way to refresh your investing skills and take away information you can use right away, including our favorite stocks to watch and much more. Click below to get your free tickets now.



Finally, I wanted to share this e-mail on my suggestion that you take the time to buy a coffee or drink for a uniformed soldier when you encountered them in line. I've received many notes like this, but this one was the most heart warming.


The war in Iraq is touchy subject here in San Francisco, but, following Toby's suggestion, I just bought coffee for a couple of servicemen this morning. Then someone else came forward and insisted on buying them a chocolate croissant and muffin. To top it off, when we went to pay, the shop owner, a Iranian immigrant, smiled and refused payment for any of it. What a frog I had in my throat.

M. Farr

Hit 'em straight,

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BerichtGeplaatst: Zo Jul 02, 2006 11:54 pm    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote


Van: Tobin Smith
Datum: 07/01/06 01:53:49
Aan: ChangeWave WaveRider
Onderwerp: ChangeWave Investing Weekly Update (06/30/2006)

June 30, 2006

STOCKS MENTIONED IN THIS WEEK'S UPDATE INCLUDE: Connacher Oil and Gas (CLL.TO), Cree (CREE), Distributed Energy Systems (DESC), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Insmed (INSM), Intermec (IN), Natural Gas Services Group (NGS), Parallel Petroleum (PLLL), Peru Copper (CUP), Sonus (SONS), USEC Inc. (USU), VeriSign (VRSN) and Xethanol Corp. (XNL).


To view our current ChangeWave Portfolio buy lists, click here:


Connacher Oil and Gas (CLL.TO) -- Raise the Buy Under to $4.50


Dear WaveRiders,

Well the "Toby Bottom" call continues to look better and better -- even Gary B. Smith from the Fox News Channel will concede tomorrow on "Bulls & Bears" that the call was not only right, but it is also sustainable. I will wait a while to take a bow, but for those of you who followed me into the meltdown to buy insanely cheap energy and energy services companies -- BRAVO!

Hang on to those energy shares we added two weeks ago -- oil prices are headed back to $75 a barrel as demand sucks up excess inventory and makes gasoline scarce.

We're skidding into the end of this horrific quarter with a very nice rally -- thank you Gentler Ben.

And so far the economic news we have after the Gentler Ben Fed is encouraging.

Personal income and spending for May were up 0.4% versus expectations for increases of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was up 0.2%, which was right in line with expectations.

While that reading puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.1%, which is above the Fed's forecasted range, everyone has to realize that this number is a lagging indicator, meaning it does not tell us what is happening in the future, just the past.

What we are seeing is a peaking in the inflation cycle just as the 400% increase in short-term interest rates (and extra $1 a gallon for gas) is just NOW hitting consumer pocketbooks. I expect the consumer to return to 2%-ish GDP growth as higher mortgage and property tax costs take away 1% or more of spending power.

When you add in increased spending by corporations on productivity, increasing technology AND stock buy backs, what we are seeing is a gradual reduction in the rate of GDP growth and a gradual reduction in the PCE index -- i.e., a textbook soft landing.

This scenario should be reinforced by earnings growth rates of low-10% in Q2, and 7%-8% in Q3-Q4. This is why I'm bullish on market fundamentals and was willing to be brave buying into the meltdown.


Gentler Ben appears to have been doing enough inflation hawk jaw-boning to scare enough folks on the Street to be bearish enough to clip the bubble in commodities, but not blow it up. A lot of investors are STILL bearish and not believing that the bottom is in, and that is GREAT! We need their cash when they realize (like Gary B.) that they were too bearish and now need to catch up with their better-timed peers.

The rebound in commodity prices from the cliff diving of the last six weeks supports my assertion that the meltdown was not the beginning of a bear market -- it was the start of a chain reaction to the extreme removal of monetary juice (i.e., cash) by the Bank of Japan in early May. The $300 billion of cash (i.e., liquidity) removed all at once was too much, too soon, and it started a domino effect meltdown in leveraged commodity speculators who have borrowed hundreds of billions in yen to speculate with in the hot commodity markets.

The domino effect was significantly accelerated by the over-long leveraged hot money (read: private hedge funds) that blew out positions, prices-be-damned, with sell stops to protect profits and capital.

This is life in the global capital markets in the 21st century -- get used to it. Too much money being cashiered to forced sales was the flame that lit the meltdown torch.

Bernanke is learning on the job -- he is still in the minor leagues trust-wise, but he is moving from A to AA ball here.

As long as the Fed raises only a quarter point to a half point more AND simultaneously reduces its hawkish rhetoric (as they should with our inflation-peaking forecast), we are good to go for a year end rally.


The Wall Street Journal reports that the House voted to lift the bans that have prevented oil and gas drilling on most of the federal undersea tracts off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

The bill also allows states that currently have oil production on federal land off their coasts or those that allow oil and gas drilling there in the future to share royalty payments that would otherwise go entirely to the federal government.

The measure still needs to be approved by the Senate -- which won't happen.

But it's a start. We need a gas shortage this winter to win the votes, and even then if the Republicans lose the Senate there goes any chance of meaningful energy exploration off the U.S. coasts.


This week the EETimes published a report by market researcher J-Star Global about how a polysilicon shortage could cause growth in the semiconductor industry to fall short of 2006 industry estimates and possibly stagnate in 2007. The semiconductor industry has continued to see growth, mostly because of the assumption that silicon is inexhaustible, but it now needs to focus on how to secure polysilicon.

"J-Star estimated that polysilicon production will reach 40,000 tons in 2007 thanks to suppliers bolstering capacity. However, polysilicon demand by the solar-cell industry is slated to double to nearly 20,000 tons over the same period.

"Should the allocation ratio of polysilicon to IC and solar industries remain the same, J-Star predicted chip market growth of 6.3% this year and 8.7% next year -- lower than the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group's 10.1% forecast for 2006 and 11% in 2007.

"If the solar industry absorbs more polysilicon, the percentage of polysilicon it consumes will increase to 35% this year and 40% next. Consequently, semiconductor market growth will slow to 3.6% this year and 0.3% in 2007."

All bodes will for MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR). This may be your last chance to buy under $38!


We've noticed that a lot of our ChangeWave Investing subscribers are not on the list to receive our twice-weekly WaveWire broadcasts that are sent every Monday and Wednesday. Even though you may believe you're getting everything you need from our Weekly Updates and the newly updated Web site, you are missing out on additional commentary from yours truly as well as other ChangeWave advisers and features like the "ChangeQuakes of the Week" on Mondays.

There's no time like the present to get on board -- click below to sign up for the WaveWire and don't miss out on any of the benefits of being part of the ChangeWave family.



As investors in the today's market, we've come to expect occasional corrections -- it's all part of the higher highs, higher lows market we live in. However, this past month we saw a HUGE correction, not just in the U.S. market, but worldwide, and the effects were staggering. We saw a nearly 9% pullback in the U.S. markets, and the global capital markets pulled back more than $6.3 trillion.

Now that the dust has settled, in this month's ChangeWave Investing issue, we'll take a look at what happened, what factors influenced the meltdown and what we've learned. We'll also hear from our ChangeWave Alliance, and get their latest survey results that will help us predict what lies ahead for the remainder of the year.

Click below and read the July ChangeWave Investing newsletter.



The most attractive entry places for new money are as follows:

Brigham Exploration (BEXP) -- Buy Under $10
Connacher Oil and Gas (CLL.TO) -- Buy Under $4.50
Distributed Energy Systems (DESC) -- Buy Under $7.50
Emcore (EMKR) -- Buy Under $11
Gasco Energy (GSX) -- Buy Under $6
Natural Gas Services Group (NGS) -- Buy Under $22
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) -- Buy Under $36
UTS Energy (UTS.TO) -- Buy Under $6

BJ Services (BJS) -- Buy Under $37.50
Intermec (IN) -- Buy Under $27.50
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) -- Buy Under $38
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) -- Buy Under $32
Silicon Motion (SIMO) -- Buy Under $16
TODCO (THE) -- Buy Under $37
USEC Inc. (USU) -- Buy Under $14

Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV) -- Buy Under $22
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) -- Buy Under $35
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) -- Buy Under $33
Harvest Energy Trust (HTE) -- Buy Under $33

Insmed (INSM) -- Buy Under $2
Peru Copper (CUP) -- Buy Under $5


Remember, you don't have to wait for the Weekly Update to keep up with the headlines in our favorite names. Our new and vastly improved ChangeWave Investing Web site has a new section called the "Stock Monitor" where you can go to read all the latest headlines on our Buy List companies.

The latest stories are displayed on the home page, but if you click on the "more" link in the Stock Monitor box you will be taken to a page with the latest headlines for EACH stock on our list. Go to www.changewave.com to check it out.

Also, if you are looking for a quick summary of our advice on our recommended stocks, check out the Buy List Matrix. There you will find a list of the current stocks with the latest prices (with daily movement indicated by red or green numbers), plus the Buy Under, Strong Buy Under, Accumulate Under AND Target prices -- all in one place.

Now, on to the news...


Connacher Oil and Gas has received a letter from the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board responding to the Aug. 15, 2005, giving approval to implement a steam-assisted gravity drainage scheme for the production of bitumen from the McMurray Deposit in the Athabasca oil sands area.

This is a significant positive development for Connacher and plans to initiate on-site activity will continue to be formulated and advanced. Connacher also anticipates close cooperation with Alberta Environment and Alberta Sustainable Resource Development during the final stages of the planning phase and then during the ensuing construction and operational phases of its 10,000 bbl/d Great Divide Project.

OUR TAKE: Next milestone: financial partner!


Cree has agreed to pay $46 million in cash and the assumption of stock options for Intrinsic Semiconductor Corp., a privately held developer of low defect density silicon carbide substrates. Under terms of the acquisition, Cree will acquire all of Intrinsic's outstanding capital stock and options, with roughly $43.5 million in cash and the rest to be paid through assuming Intrinsic's outstanding stock options.

Cree said Intrinsic's technology would speed up development of larger-diameter, high-quality silicon carbide wafers, which would pave the way for high-power semiconductor devices. The transaction is expected to be completed in July, and will not have a material impact on Cree's fiscal 2007 earnings. The company also forecast it will incur about $325,000 of nonrecurring costs for the acquisition.


Northern Power, a subsidiary of Distributed Energy Systems, has signed an agreement with two key Alaskan-based contracting firms. The agreement with construction firm STG Inc. and engineering services firm Hattenburg Dilley & Linnell (HDL) forms the Alaska Wind Resource Group (AWRG), a cooperative effort dedicated to the turnkey installation, commissioning and service of Northern Power's NorthWind 100 wind turbine systems in Alaska.

The 100-kilowatt NorthWind 100 wind turbine will be the centerpiece of AWRG's sales and business development efforts. To date, the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative has purchased 13 NorthWind 100 turbines to generate lower-cost, environmentally friendly power for a number of the 52 rural villages in its service area.

The first three turbines have been installed, with three more scheduled for installation this month. Northern Power supplied the turbines, as well as remote monitoring software, system controls, and engineering and wind-diesel integration services. STG, Alaska's preeminent construction management and planning firm, erected the turbines, while HDL performed civil and geotechnical engineering and permitting duties on the installation.

OUR TAKE: There is a backlog of a year or two for most wind projects, so this is GREAT news. It means other buyers will come to the front to hopscotch the backlogs. Buy DESC at its current price below $6 before it takes off again.


Energy Conversion Devices announced that it is now included in the new Nasdaq Global Select Market. The Nasdaq Global Select Market has the highest initial listing standards of any exchange in the world based on financial and liquidity requirements. Prior to the change, the company had been listed on the Nasdaq National Market.

OUR TAKE: More liquidity may make the stock less volatile.


FuelCell Energy announced that one of its 250-kilowatt Direct FuelCell (DFC) power plants, sold by its Asian distributor Marubeni Corp. to NTT Facilities, will be incorporated into an electric supply system providing reliable base load power to a university, a welfare institution, a high school and a water purification plant in Sendai City, in northeastern Japan.

Sendai City's DFC power plant is part of a 940-kilowatt high-quality electric power system consisting of the fuel cell unit, a solar power system and a gas engine co-generation system. FuelCell Energy recently announced that Marubeni had committed to order an additional six Megawatts of DFC power plants in exchange for rights as the exclusive provider of the company's products in the Japanese Market.


Insmed presented new study results this week at the annual meeting of the Endocrine Society, ENDO 2006. Results from the first study show that its drug IPLEX is effective in increasing growth and improving glycemic control in patients with severe insulin-resistance syndromes, specifically Leprechaunism and Type A syndrome.

In another clinical trial, once-daily treatment with IPLEX significantly improved height velocity in children with severe primary insulin growth factor-I (IGF-I) deficiencies. And a third study of the pharmacokinetics of IPLEX in normal adults showed positive results, with simultaneous increases in IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and without undue increases in "free" IGF-I.


Intermec has filed suit against Alien Technology in the U.S. District Court of Delaware for patent infringement. Intermec alleges that Alien's Generation 2 RFID readers and tags infringe 10 Intermec patents. Intermec is seeking an injunction prohibiting Alien from selling the infringing RFID products, as well as monetary damages.

Intermec also filed a motion to dismiss a declaratory judgment action filed by Alien in the U.S. District Court of North Dakota. Intermec is moving to dismiss the case on the grounds that the North Dakota federal court does not have jurisdiction to hear the case.

OUR TAKE: Like I've said before, with the Alien IPO roadshow about to start, this was predictable -- Intermec plays hardball. Alien will most likely settle this quickly if it holds up their IPO. Intermec is still cheap here under $25.


Natural Gas Services Group announced that it has fabricated its 1,000th compressor for addition to its rental fleet. The unit was fabricated at its rental packaging facility in Midland, Texas, and is already under rental contract to a customer in eastern New Mexico.

Steve Taylor, chairman, president and CEO said, "This is an important milestone for the company and the credit goes to our customers and employees for supporting and enabling this growth. We have increased our number of rental fleet units by approximately 50% in both 2004 and 2005 and this 1,000th unit illustrates the growth we continue to experience."

OUR TAKE: This is the cheapest energy services stock in the planet, yet the stock trades like dog poop. I'm still trying to figure that out, but NGS is a GREAT buy here under $15.


Since its last update on May 10, Parallel has placed six new wells in production in its Barnett Shale gas project, producing at a combined rate of approximately 31,600 gross Mcf of gas per day. Including the six new wells noted above, Parallel's Barnett Shale gas project now has a total of 14 wells producing at a combined rate of approximately 47,000 gross Mcf of gas per day. The Barnett Shale gas project generated approximately 10% of the company's first-quarter 2006 daily production (527 BOE per day) and represented approximately 6% of its reserve value.

OUR TAKE: Man, I wish every small-cap E&P company was as dependable as PLLL. Each of these gas wells is paying off in about one year, yet they are 20-year-plus producing wells thanks to today's fracturing and horizontal drilling technology.


Peru Copper has signed an agreement with Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines to fund the construction of a water treatment plant to treat acid drainage water from the Kingsmill Tunnel. The tunnel was constructed in the mid-1930s by Cerro de Pasco Corp. specifically to drain mine workings and it crosses beneath mining concessions in the Morococha mining district to collect acid water.

The water collected by the tunnel is highly acidic and contains a number of different metals, all of which are believed to be over permissible health limits. The tunnel currently discharges water into the Yauli River at a rate of 1,200 liters per second. CUP has placed $15 million in an escrow account to fund the design, construction and startup of the treatment plant. The Ministry of Energy and Mines and CUP will form a joint committee to oversee the bidding process, construction and operation of the plant.


Opal Telecom, one of the largest telecommunications network operators in the UK, has deployed Sonus solutions as the foundation for its next-generation network as part of a multimillion-dollar contract with Sonus. Opal's nationwide deployment is driven by the recent regulatory decision from the UK's Office of Communications requiring the unbundling of last-mile infrastructure to the home, which is known as Local Loop Unbundling.

Designed to reach nearly 70% of the population in the UK, Opal's next generation network will be one of the most sophisticated telecommunications networks in the world. Opal will deploy the complete, end-to-end Sonus solution to deliver a unique primary line residential voice service that enables enhanced capabilities while supporting the stringent demands for reliability and telecom-grade quality of service.

OUR TAKE: The stock is creeping back up -- hold tight.


USEC Inc. announced that its Megatons to Megawatts program has eliminated 275 metric tons of highly enriched uranium, equivalent to 11,000 nuclear warheads. Upon the program's completion in 2013, 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium from Russian nuclear warheads will have been downblended into low-enriched uranium fuel for use in commercial nuclear power plants.

The 275 metric tons converted to date could generate enough electricity to meet the country's demand for more than a year and contains the energy equivalent of 5.7 billion barrels of oil. The U.S. and Russian executive agents have a successful 13-year record of operating the program on a commercial basis at no cost to taxpayers. In 2005, the Megatons to Megawatts fuel supplied over 44% of the U.S. requirements for enriched uranium used in the country's 103 nuclear reactors.

As executive agent for the U.S. government, USEC implements the 20-year commercial agreement with the Russian executive agent OAO Techsnabexport. Under the contract, Russia is guaranteed to receive at least $7.6 billion from its sales to USEC. Through 2005, USEC had already paid Russia over $4.1 billion. Given current market conditions, USEC expects to pay more than the guaranteed amount by the end of the contract term.

OUR TAKE: I'm still looking at the new New Mexico centrifuge deal -- but USU moved up after the announcement, which has to tell us that most of the enriched uranium they will make is already factored into the overall market.


VeriSign has received a grand jury subpoena from the U.S. attorney for the Northern District of California asking for documents relating to its stock option grants. VeriSign said it also received a similar request from the SEC as part of an informal inquiry.

The company said it intends to cooperate fully with both the SEC and the U.S. attorney's office, and added that its board had already begun an internal investigation prior to the two requests. About 48 companies in addition to VeriSign are being questioned by the SEC or Justice Department about their stock-option granting practices. At issue is whether executives backdated stock options grants to time them at low points of the stock price, thus boosting the payouts.


Xethanol Corp. has joined with Global Energy and Management to form a new venture to develop ethanol production in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont. The new venture, known as NewEnglandXethanol, or NEX, plans to open several ethanol plants throughout the region deploying Xethanol's proprietary technologies. Additionally, Xethanol may co-locate biodiesel production in its facilities under Xethanol's sub-license from H2Diesel Inc.

OUR TAKE: The advantage of cellulosic ethanol is its potential efficiency. It can use wild-growing plants that we wouldn't have to cultivate, and it promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80%. The only problem is that making it involves a complicated process that breaks down plant material into sugars using enzymes that aren't yet commercially available.

The most promising methods, like one developed at the University of California at Berkeley that uses an enzyme derived from a cotton-eating fungus, are still at the laboratory stage, and the first commercial enzymes aren't expected until 2009 at the earliest.

So keep your eye on Craig Venter, the scientist who helped map the human genome. His latest venture, Synthetic Genomics, is using $31 million in venture-capital funding to make genetically modified plants and plant-eating enzymes. Such an ambitious, DNA-level project will take a lot longer than three years.

XNL is a leader in commercial enzyme development, and THAT is the secret to this stock.

By the way, the guys at Xethanol responded to a Motley Fool article from Friday, June 23 that made several charges it calls misleading. I'm sure some of you saw the Fool takedown and it's good to see the leaders of ChangeWave stocks respond when someone gets it wrong. Their statement can be found in the Xethanol section of our Stock Monitor by clicking here: www.changewave.com


Then join me at the D.C. Money Show on July 20-22. It's a great way to refresh your investing skills and take away information you can use right away, including our favorite stocks to watch and much more. Click below to get your free tickets now.


Hit 'em straight,


This mes
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BerichtGeplaatst: Do Jul 13, 2006 10:23 pm    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote

Van: Tobin Smith
Datum: 07/13/06 20:45:16
Aan: ChangeWave WaveRider
Onderwerp: ChangeWave Investing Alert (CREE)

July 13, 2006


Dear WaveRiders,

Our research (and that of others) noted a slowdown for the cell phone handset makers. What we failed to read correctly is the increasing Tier-1 cell phone inventories in China and India.

It is this excess inventory that hit wireless component players like Cree (CREE), which is trading significantly lower today.

CREE's pre-announcement of weaker-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings below the previously forecast range of 22 cents to 24 cents a share created this sell-off.

CREE also reported that it expects its fourth-quarter gross margin to be below its previously reported outlook and revenue to be on the lower end of its forecast due to lower LED sales. CREE expects its gross margin to come in at around 42%, compared with previous forecasts of between 46% and 47%.

But the company expects revenue of around $106.7 million. CREE had previously estimated revenue of $106 million to $110 million, so this is NOT a meltdown.

The company said it expects LED chip sales to fall slightly in the first quarter of 2007 from the fourth quarter of 2006 due to a recent slowdown in demand for mobile products.

However, buried in the news release -- and confirmed to me this morning by company officials -- is a BIG issue: CREE believes the LED decline to the handset business should be mostly offset by increased sales of its XLamp LED and Schottky diode products.

This is great news that validates our long-term view that these new applications of CREE's technology are the drivers of future value for the shares, not the old commoditized handset LEDs.

I believed that the price run-up to $35 reflected growing respect for the white-light LED business. In retrospect, I was wrong -- it was obviously just momo buyers buying a good chart.

We are investing in the emerging multibillion-dollar business of white-light LEDs, and that view will be validated in 2007. The failure to beat the uniform consensus created this dump-it-now meltdown. The sellers are the same traders who do not see the huge upside in white-light LEDs.


Cree is the leading innovator and major intellectual property owner in white-light LEDs, and the forecast replacement cycle -- especially replacing fluorescent lighting -- is just upon us.

The lower power consumption (one-tenth that of fluorescent lights) and longer life-span (as much as 10 times as long, in some cases) makes white LEDs a "no-brainer" purchase once the price becomes competitive.

The big question, then, is when will white LED production costs become low enough that it becomes a disruptive technology for commercial lighting applications?

The answer is almost now! (Especially with $70 oil and $6 natural gas.)

Finally, let's look at Cree's valuation and balance sheets:

* $188 million in free cash flow for the past 12 months, with a $1.3 trillion market cap today
* $250 million in cash and NO debt
* Less than 10 times cash flow (cash removed)

That is an INSANE valuation -- just insane.

Cree will add another $100 million in cash during the next six months, making the current entry price even more insanely cheap.

I'm sorry for not getting the inventory build on target -- I'll take full responsibility for the miss. We are currently revisiting all of our tech positions to find other bogeymen in the bushes.

However, CREE's insane valuation now is truly the first back-up-the-truck meltdown of this correction for us.

I recommend buying a full allotment under $20 -- and under $18 is even better.

Our target for CREE is now $36 in 2008 as XLamp shipments grow at a more than 150% compound annual growth rate from here.


OK, newbies (and any other WaveRiders who care to listen), one of the best ways we have made extraordinary profits in the last few years was by having cash on hand for when a favored ChangeWave stock hits a temporary bump and has a meltdown.

The list of doubles, triples or more from these meltdowns is long, while the strikeout list is relatively short. Below are some examples of times I've recommended buying in times of distress:

* Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) at $1.25
* XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) at $2.50
* PetroKazakhstan (PKZ) at $26
* ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (ATPG) at $3
* Frontline Ltd. (FRO) at $28
* Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) at $11
* Provident Energy Trust (PVX) at $8
* Matrix Service (MTRX) at $3

And the list goes on.

Be sure to take advantage of this Cree meltdown to be in on the rebound.

Hit 'em straight,

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BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Jul 31, 2006 1:22 am    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote

Datum: 07/29/06 05:34:18
Aan: ChangeWave WaveRider
Onderwerp: ChangeWave Investing Weekly Update (07/28/2006)

July 28, 2006

STOCKS MENTIONED IN THIS WEEK'S UPDATE INCLUDE: Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV), Alvarion (ALVR), BJ Services Co. (BJS), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Sonus (SONS), Suntech Power Holdings (STP) and Superior Energy (SPN)


To view our current ChangeWave Portfolio buy lists, click here:


Alvarion (ALVR) -- Remove Buy Under, no additional purchases
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) -- Lower Buy Under to $10

Apple Computer (AAPL) -- Buy Under $67


Dear WaveRiders,

We squawk so much about our ChangeWave Alliance (8,500-members-strong and growing) and the research we get from them, that we have to back up the crowing with some concrete results every once in a while.

As Muhammad Ali once said, "It ain't braggin' if it's true."

Well, our macro call on the slowing rate of GDP looks awfully good today. Take a look at this June 16 headline from our 2Q 2006 Alliance Corporate Sales Report.

Relatively Strong 2nd Quarter Sales, but Modest Contraction in Growth Rate Coupled With Reduced Visibility Going Forward

"Bottom Line: Yes, the current survey findings point to a slight contraction in sales growth for the second quarter, along with reduced visibility going forward. And yes, there are hints of inflationary pressures and a decline in the capital spending growth rate. But the same survey points to relatively strong second-quarter sales -- and the overall results are clearly better than a year ago. Moreover, 65% are still saying their existing customers have a 'Green Light' to spend.

"All in all, it’s encouraging news for those hoping for a still-growing economy in the second quarter but with a moderate downtick from the torrid economic pace of the first."

Here's today's headline from this morning's Gross Domestic Product report from MarketWatch:

GDP slows to 2.5% in second quarter

"WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, growing at a real 2.5% annual rate after a torrid 5.6% pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

"The gross domestic product report raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates and allow the economy to slow to a soft landing.'This report provides Fed policymakers with some hard evidence of slowing in the pace of economic activity,' said David Greenlaw, an economist for Morgan Stanley. The 2.5% real growth was weaker than the 3.1% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

"Consumer spending weakened in the April through June period ... and business investment eased to the slowest growth in more than two years. Investments in business equipment and software declined for the first time in three years, the biggest surprise in the report."

When I tell you that our ChangeWave Alliance research is like having our own crystal ball, I'm not kidding!

Bottom line: Our Alliance IT spending and macroeconomic surveys nailed it again.


All in all, removing the Fed from the market brought us the best week in the markets in two years.

Like we've said ad nauseam for the last year…if ANYONE is confused by what’s been keeping the market contained, let me explain it to ya again so it's perfectly clear.

It’s the Fed, stupid.

So now that our macroeconomic research has been verified by the GDP numbers (expect to see a slight revision upwards next month), TODAY we start to reposition our portfolio for the LAST leg of the bull market.

When the Fed quits raising rates, 9 out of 10 times the market is higher 12 to16 months later. I expect a lot of this move to come during the next six months.

What’s our strategy to beat the overall market by 300%-500%?

Let's compare the bull market to a horse race.

At the beginning, the early cyclicals and MOST beaten-up stocks tend to do best -- these are the speed horses, if you will. Look at the money we made in our most aggressive stocks from 2003 to 2004…wow! We stayed away from big pharma and big tech for the most part to capture the most beaten-down growers coming out of the short recession.

We SOLD our interest rate-sensitive plays like mortgage REITs and specialty REITs gradually and put our money on the fastest horses.

As we rounded the 1/3 pole, we entered into 2005 and 2006 where the markets had gone nowhere. (Except for our energy and base materials investments -- thank goodness!) The field (the economy) started to slow down -- really in the second quarter of 2006.

In the middle third of the bull market, the horses (stocks) vied for position and the STRONGEST secular growth plays (the best horses, if you will) got in a position to move ahead as the field (the economy in this metaphor) started to slow.

In this third, we recommended selling early cyclicals like home stocks and mature technology, autos and auto parts, and retailers.

NOW that we are at the final third of the bull market -- the 18-month to 24-month (or longer) stretch drive -- and we need to adjust our portfolios to make the most money we can AHEAD of the possibility of a recession (caused by the Fed overdoing their rate hikes).


I’m working up a special update for next week that will detail all our moves, but here is the CliffsNotes version to prepare you for the test.

1) In a 2.5% GDP world, we want 25% secular-earnings growers. This is where great companies with great LOCKED–IN worldwide sales and earnings growth will shine.
2) We want companies riding waves of unstoppable transformational change with year-over-year growth comparisons they can crush, not just beat.
3) We will add financial stocks to Ballast Growth. I expect to see rate cuts from the Fed next year, not rate hikes.
4) We will go to 50% Ballast Growth, 30% Ballast Income and 20% Aggressive Growth
5) We will increase sector allocations to financial services -- mortgage REITS -- and healthcare (mostly riding diabetes wave and biologic generics coming on board)
6) We will add a few corporate ChangeQuake plays -- companies like Apple that have created huge positive transformational events in their businesses.
7) When we get 10% of fair value for our recommendations, we WILL take long-term profit.

We will raise cash selling some winners and matching those gains by selling losers that have NOT met our forecasted growth numbers … it's time to do some weeding in our garden.


We have four basic stock categories from a technical and fundamental basis (not including our Legacy stocks): Broken Out, Breaking Out, Extreme Value and Broken Down.

Broken Out: Northfield Labs (NFLD), Northgate Minerals (NXG), Superior Energy (SPN), Parallel Petroleum (PLLL) and Frontline (FRO)

Breaking Out: Apple (AAPL -- safe to buy again under $67), BJ Services (BJS), Harvest Energy Trust (HTE), Intermec (IN), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Suntech Power Holdings (STP), TODCO (THE), Meridian Resource (TMR), Provident Energy Trust (PVX), Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) and Silicon Motion (SIMO)

Extreme Value: These are oversold, so you can back up the truck -- Natural Gas Services (NGS) (see below), Gasco Energy (GSX), Fording Canadian Coal (FDG), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Cree (CREE), Brigham Exploration (BEXP) and USEC (USU)

Broken Down: Alvarion (ALVR), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Distributed Energy Systems (DESC), VeriSign (VRSN) and Sonus (SONS)

As expected, the broken down stocks are in our SMALLEST capital allocation group -- the Aggressive Growth portfolio. There is a reason why we do our allocation this way. A few 100%ers like UTS Energy (UTS) and Connacher (CLL.TO) can more than offset the other losers in this category … but I want your small allocation here for risk management.

In my upcoming special update, we'll take the time to reexamine our entire list to put us in position to ride the HUGE waves of growth that are separating themselves from the pack:

* Diabetes
* Streaming audio/video
* HDTV (finally!)
* Electronic health records

Plus, we intend to keep an eye on our strongest waves of long-term secular growth

* Solid-state lighting
* Canadian tar sands
* Mobile content services
* RFID (look for the delayed Alien Technology IPO next week)
* Energy production and drilling services
* Renewable energy technologies -- wind power, solar power and biomass fuel

Some examples of great values on our list that I want you to own NOW before earnings include PTEN, FDG, IN and THE.

NATURAL GAS SERVICES (NGS) -- Finally Breaking Out

Here are the earnings numbers for the first quarter.

Total revenue for NGS increased from $11.0 million to $13.6 million, or 23%, for the three months ended March 31, 2006, when compared to the year-ago quarter. This increase was primarily due to continued quarterly growth in compression rental revenues, which increased 55%, and a 12% increase in sales revenues.

For you technical geeks, the chart above is a breakout. NGS is a great buy under $18 with a $30 target.

WIMAX -- Mobile WiMax is Winning, but Alvarion (ALVR) is Not

Signals Research said in a research note that its investigations suggest Sprint Nextel is leaning toward making an announcement that it will deploy mobile WiMAX in the 2.5GHz band. Technology stakeholders have been wringing their hands waiting for a decision from the country's largest holder of 2.5GHz spectrum. Sprint has been testing a number of technologies, including IP Wireless' TD-CDMA and Flash-OFDM.

Not Alvarion's, though, and that's the problem. With the merger of Alcatel and Lucent, I’m afraid Alvarion is getting lost in the shuffle.

According to Signals, if Sprint doesn't get cold feet about the decision, then there are many unanswered questions surrounding such a deployment, including the size and timing of a deployment since equipment that encompasses the much-needed MIMO technology for the 2.5GHz band won't be available until at least the second half of 2007. Another unknown is when devices might be available that can support enhanced features.

Which vendors will benefit? Will Sprint require a similar investment that Intel and Motorola gave to Clearwire, the country's second-largest 2.5GHz player that has now fully committed to mobile WiMAX?

This is why my patience with ALVR has worn down. We will try to ride it up during this rally and then alert you when to sell. We're removing the buy price from the stock today and don't recommend further purchases.


We will be releasing our August issue of the ChangeWave Investing monthly newsletter on Monday. As I'm sure you've noticed, we've been making a lot of changes around here, with the biggest being our recently redesigned Web site and increased content. And today we've got another one to tell you about.

Beginning with the upcoming issue of the ChangeWave Investing monthly newsletter, we will no longer be mailing out a hard copy to subscribers. You will still get all the great information you expect from us, but now the newsletter will only be available online in PDF form so you won't have to wait for the mailman. Look for an alert when the newsletter is posted and available for downloading.


Remember, you don't have to wait for the Weekly Update to keep up with the headlines in our favorite names. Our ChangeWave Investing Web site has a new section called the "Stock Monitor" where you can go to read all the latest headlines on our Buy List companies.

The five or six newest stories are displayed on the home page, but if you click on the "more" link in the Stock Monitor box you will be taken to a page with the latest headlines for EACH AND EVERY stock on our list. Go to www.changewave.com to check it out.

Also, if you are looking for a quick summary of our buying advice on our recommended stocks, check out the Buy List Matrix. There you will find a list of the current stocks with the latest prices (with daily movement indicated by red or green numbers), plus the Buy Under, Strong Buy Under, Accumulate Under AND Target prices -- all in one place.


BJ Services reported an 86% increase in its fiscal third-quarter earnings, with a surge in drilling activity driving up revenue and profit margins for its core pressure pumping services. Net income rose to $213 million, or 67 cents a share, from $114 million, or 35 cents, a year ago. Revenue for the quarter rose 37% to $1.12 billion from $817 million.

The company said it sees fourth-quarter earnings of 73 cents to 75 cents a share, compared with 67 cents analysts surveyed by First Call were predicting. The company also announced its quarterly cash dividend of 5 cents per share, payable Oct. 13, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Sept. 15, 2006.

OUR TAKE: GREAT numbers … and higher guidance. A perfect combination.


Energy Conversion Devices announced that its subsidiary, Ovonic Battery, has filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) charging Varta Microbattery with patent infringement of Varta's consumer nickel-metal hydride battery button cell products. The complaint alleges that Varta has engaged in unfair trade practices by manufacturing and importing infringing batteries into the U.S. and requests that the ITC exclude those infringing products from further importation into the U.S.

OUR TAKE: That's just part of doing business these days -- bring on the lawyers.


Evergreen Solar announced that its second-quarter net loss widened, despite product revenues that increased 106% to $22 million from $10.7 million in the year-ago quarter. During the quarter, the company's research and development expenses increased to $4 million from $2.6 million, and its selling, general and administrative costs grew to $6.4 million from $3 million.

Quarterly net loss attributable to common shareholders was $7.5 million, or 11 cents per share, compared with a loss of $4.5 million, or 7 cents per share, in last year's same quarter. Wall Street had been expecting a loss of 15 cents per share on sales of $22 million, according to a Thomson Financial analyst poll.

The EverQ factory's production ramp in Germany is on track to reach full production capacity by the end of the third quarter.

OUR TAKE: This is start up costs for the HUGE German plan. Sales will double again during the next year with profits -- I'm lowering the buy under to $10.


This week MEMC Electronic Materials said that its second-quarter profit more than doubled on a 36% increase in sales. The company also boosted its earnings and revenue targets for the year.

For the second quarter, MEMC earned $81.9 million, or 36 cents per share, vs. $40.5 million, or 18 cents per share, for the year-ago quarter. On an adjusted basis, the company earned $103.1 million, or 45 cents per share, in the second quarter. Revenue grew to $370.5 million from $272.3 million in the year-ago period, which topped analysts' forecasts.

MEMC raised its 2006 earnings-per-share estimate to a range of $1.80 to $2, from a previous outlook of $1.40 to $1.70. The company said it expects revenue of $1.5 billion, compared with a previous guidance range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion.

The company also said it expects its third-quarter sales to be about 5% higher then those of the second quarter, based on expectations of an increase in demand for its products.

OUR TAKE: These are GREAT numbers -- buy MEMC under $31 with a $45 target.


Northfield Labs announced a preclinical study describing the use of a novel formulation of the company's human hemoglobin-based oxygen carrier in pancreatic islet cell isolation and transplantation was presented at the World Transplantation Congress in Boston.

Jose Oberholzer, M.D., director of Cell and Pancreas Transplantation at the University of Illinois at Chicago and director of the Chicago Project, led the research team. The study explored the use of Northfield's hemoglobin-based oxygen carrier that was specially formulated as a solution to improve oxygen delivery and thus better maintain pancreatic islet cell function. The results of this initial study demonstrate that such a solution improves islet cell function and transplantation outcomes in small animals.

Dr. Oberholzer's work demonstrates that the use of this novel form of Northfield's human hemoglobin-based oxygen carrier has the potential to improve the outcomes associated with pancreatic islet cell transplantation and therefore may be useful in the treatment of diabetes in the future.

OUR TAKE: Very interesting … but NOT why we own it.


For the second quarter, Silicon Motion reported a 37% increase in net income from the previous quarter, and a 61% increase from the year-ago quarter. The company saw earnings increase 36% from the previous quarter to 14 cents per share, and 19 cents per share from a year ago.

Sales grew 25% year-over-year and 21% sequentially to $21.4 million, and gross margin increased to 53.5% from 53% in the previous quarter. During the quarter, unit shipments of mobile storage products grew 102% year-over-year and 41% sequentially to 29 million units.

OUR TAKE: Again, great news and guidance. Look for new Apple products to crank into the fourth quarter.


According to a report entitled, "VOIP Minutes and Subscribers: 1Q06 Update," issued by iLocus, 32% of all long distance IP-based voice traffic is carried over Sonus Networks' IP Multimedia Subsystem-ready networks. In the second quarter of 2006, Sonus solutions drove nearly 61 billion minutes of IP voice traffic. In the month of June alone, Sonus-based networks carried 22 billion minutes of IP voice traffic, representing a nearly 70% increase compared to June 2005.

The dramatic growth in traffic is attributable to a combination of factors including a number of new Sonus customers bringing their networks live, as well as the decision by major incumbent network operators to migrate more of their traffic from their traditional network infrastructures onto their Sonus-based network.

OUR TAKE: Sonus is a perennial bridesmaid, leading all the competitors but not making real money off of it…grrrr.


Suntech Power Holdings has agreed to buy a 10-year supply of solar wafers from MEMC Electronic Materials, in a deal worth between $5 billion and $6 billion over the period.

In addition, MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) received a warrant to buy about a 4.9% equity stake in Suntech.

Suntech said it expects the number of wafers it buys annually will increase during the span of the contract, and MEMC agreed to a fixed-price reduction over time. As part of the agreement, Suntech said it will advance MEMC an interest-free loan or security deposit for expansion of MEMC's manufacturing capacity.

OUR TAKE: Great for news for STP and WFR


This is it folks, the LAST CALL for our Burgundy Wine, Dine and Stocks trip.

Monday, July 31 is the absolute deadline to sign up for our fabulous insider's tour of one of the three greatest gastronomic regions in the world, Burgundy.

We have a great group of ChangeWavers coming, and room for a few more couples.

If you are a lover of great food, wine and history, prepare yourself for a trip of a lifetime.

You are going to see Burgundy the way few Americans will ever see Burgundy, and I know that when you are done you will love this area, her food and most importantly, her wine.

Click here to get the full agenda and to register.

And if you are traveling single, no worries! We get a mix of couples, MAPS and single-minded couples on our trips -- you know what I mean?

It's a fun trip for all, and we even have Barry the Piano Player coming along -- the songbooks are already packed!

Click here to reserve your place.


Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) -- Tuesday, Aug. 1
Alvarion (ALVR) -- Wednesday, Aug. 2
Distributed Energy Systems (DESC) -- Wednesday, Aug. 2
Emcore (EMKR) -- Wednesday, Aug. 2
Gasco Energy (GSX) -- Wednesday, Aug. 2
Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) -- Wednesday, Aug. 2
Intermec (IN) -- Thursday, Aug. 3
Patterson-UTI Energy -- Thursday, Aug. 3
TODCO (THE) -- Thursday, Aug. 3

Hit 'em straight,

Naar boven
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BerichtGeplaatst: Ma Jul 31, 2006 2:06 am    Onderwerp: Reageer met quote

Wellicht is deze interessant:

Goede balanspositie, laagste koers 14€, huiduge koers 16,13 € en opgaand naar de 20 €.

Na een IPO is na 3 maanden meestal duidelijk hoe de markt werkt en in dit geval trekt de koers rustig aan en dat zien we graag
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BerichtGeplaatst: Do Aug 03, 2006 1:13 am    Onderwerp: WNS Reageer met quote




2 weken: 11 =» 25

Na consolidatie bij dip instappen, voor de LT.
Offshore, en die business zal sterk aantrekken nu er offshore meer geboort gaat worden, meer transport en onderhoud.
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BerichtGeplaatst: Di Aug 08, 2006 8:43 pm    Onderwerp: diverse tips Reageer met quote

August 8, 2006


Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) -- Buy Under $8.50

Activision (ATVI) -- Buy Under $13

Dear WaveRiders,

It's time to add more stocks from two of the sectors I've outlined in the last two Weekly Updates. Let's get to it.


The video gaming sector is in the midst of one of its transition cycles that come every four to five years as gamemakers upgrade their consoles with new features, improved graphics and other capabilities that keep the gamers coming back for more.

The great thing is that gamers are used to this cycle. There is the assumption of planned obsolescence that comes with the trade off of buying a machine that has games that play, and play well, right out of the box vs. the PC experience that may require more frequent upgrades to get the most out of a game -- if it plays at all on your current rig. Meanwhile, the industry's software firms have to come along for the ride with the cycle, making plans for new consoles even while they anticipate the next generation.

This current transition period began last fall with the debut of Microsoft's Xbox 360, but really takes off with the introduction of Sony's PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Nintendo's Wii. With all three major console manufacturers in the game this fall, it should be the start of a new boom period for the sector -- especially the game makers.

The downside to gamers' understanding of the console cycle came with the early introduction of the new Microsoft Xbox and Sony's hype machine for the PS3. Namely, this phenomenon hurt sales for the current generation of consoles and games as many gamers held on to their cash in anticipation of the new machines.

Now it's time for all that pent-up demand to come to the sector as we see an aggressive upgrade cycle. And I like one of the software plays now above all the others, Activision (ATVI).

Activision is the No. 2 player in the industry, and I believe that Activision is one of the best-managed companies in the group with the leadership of CEO Bobby Kotick.

They have big game franchises and licenses that continue to pay off like Call of Duty, Tony Hawk, Shrek, Madagascar, Quake, and Marvel Comics' X-Men and Spider-Man, and they continue to develop new properties like this summer's "Over the Hedge" game based on the movie. This will give them familiar franchises that gamers will flock to as they upgrade to PS3s, 360s and Wiis. Plus, they will continue to sell games for the PC and handhelds, as well as the current generation of consoles until they flat line.

They have $800 million in cash and they have HUGE cash flow growth coming in 2007 and '08 -- watch for their game tie-in to "Shrek 3" -- making now the time to buy, early in the console upgrade wave.

Buy ATVI under $13 for your Ballast Growth portfolio with a $26 target.


The diabetes epidemic rages on. It's a sad fact of life that the way we live today is bringing this largely preventable disease to more and more people. But fortunately for those suffering from the disease -- and smart investors like us -- there are companies that continue to search for drugs to make it more manageable.

One of our favorites in this sector is the leading candidate to bring out insulin in pill form -- a multi-billion-dollar breakthrough -- Emisphere Technologies (EMIS).

The holy grail of drug delivery systems is converting hard-to-administer drugs -- like insulin, which requires multiple injections -- to pill form. The leader in this game for insulin is Emisphere, which recently signed a delivery agreement with drug giant Roche to conduct feasibility studies using Emisphere's eligen technology for new oral formulations of a number of Roche molecules.

Eligen technology uses synthetic chemical compounds to deliver normally injected drugs to a patient orally. They have an oral insulin deal with Ely Lilly that is quite far down the FDA trial gauntlet and we have excellent research on their oral insulin trials.

This technology enables oral delivery of large macromolecules and delivers these molecules without changing their biological integrity. Using Eligen technology, Emisphere has created a library of more than 4,000 delivery agents. Emisphere is working with the FDA to create a different, abbreviated approval process for its new delivery method based on old, oral drugs. It is still unclear what level of cooperation the company will get from the FDA to reduce the time and expense of the lengthy trials typically associated with a new drug.

EMIS has more than 80 patents, including 50 in the U.S. -- all developed over an extended period of time to support its business model and it does a great job at protecting them. It's not above slapping one of the bigger pharmas with a suit when they catch it stepping on one of its patents. The company is developing or in trials at various states with oral Heparin to prevent blood clots, oral insulin for diabetes, an oral form of a human parathyroid hormone for osteoporosis and oral human growth hormone.

The big hope for the stock is still oral insulin (in Phase II trial in India), but do not expect news until November at the earliest. It's an aggressive growth play and it doesn't trade a lot of shares compared to many of our recommendations, so be disciplined when establishing a position. (See our advice below and consider buying with limit orders, not market orders.)

Buy EMIS under $8.50 for your Aggressive Growth portfolio with a $24 target on approval for oral insulin.


As with all of our new recommendations, don't forget about what we call the "ChangeWave Effect." Often when we send out an alert about a new recommendation, it sets off a flurry of buying, causing prices to spike or exceed our recommended Buy Under prices.

Most of you have already heard this and know what to do, but for our new or less-patient subscribers, I'll go over it again. In order to get the lowest cost basis and gain the most profits from our service, don't chase new stock recommendations past our buy under limits or buy your entire position in the first 24-48 hours.

We talk a lot about discipline when buying ChangeWave stocks. This is the perfect time to use our 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 buying strategy to ease into this stock. If you go in guns a blazin' to buy a stock (especially EMIS today), you could pay too much and you will probably regret it later. Instead, purchase a portion of your position with your first buy, then let the stock come back from the trading jolt that many of our stocks experience before you complete your allocation.

Hit 'em straight,

Naar boven
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